What is Wrong-Way Risk?

Wrong-way risk (WWR) arises when a counterparty’s probability of default increases precisely when the bank’s exposure to it is also rising, amplifying financial risk. This is particularly relevant in derivatives and financing transactions where market fluctuations drive exposure.

Wrong-Way Risk vs. Traditional Credit Risk
Unlike traditional credit risk, where a loan creates a unilateral exposure (only the lender faces risk), Counterparty Credit Risk (CCR) in derivatives is bilateral:

• The market value of a derivative can be positive or negative for either party, depending on market conditions.
• The exposure is dynamic, fluctuating with market movements.

How Does a Bank Manage Wrong-Way Risk?
A bank evaluates its positive exposure at default (EAD)—the potential loss if the counterparty defaults when exposure is highest.

• Positive Exposure: If the counterparty owes money to the bank, default results in a credit loss.
• Negative Exposure: If the bank owes money, default does not result in a loss.

Since only positive exposure poses a credit risk, the bank focuses on scenarios where it could lose money due to counterparty default.

A Practical Example:
A Brazilian sugar producer expecting 1 million USD in revenue from exports is exposed to currency risk since it operates in Brazilian reals (BRL).
The producer is long USD (revenues in dollars) and then short BRL.

To hedge, the producer enters a standard currency forward contract:

• The producer sells USD and buys BRL (short USD, long BRL).
• The counterparty, a large bank, takes the opposite position (long USD, short BRL).

Devaluation and the Emergence of Wrong-Way Risk
Now, suppose the BRL depreciates by 15%:

• The bank’s positive exposure increases because it benefits from the BRL depreciation (the bank is short the BRL).
• However, a weaker BRL also signals economic distress, which could impact the producer’s ability to meet its obligation under the forward contract.

If the producer defaults, the bank faces a high exposure at the worst time - precisely when the counterparty is struggling, creating wrong-way risk.

How Banks Mitigate Wrong-Way Risk
To manage this risk, banks:

• Increase collateral requirements for counterparties with correlated exposures.
• Monitor economic indicators to detect rising counterparty risks.
• Diversify counterparties to avoid concentration in volatile markets.
• Conduct stress tests to assess potential losses in adverse scenarios.

Wrong-way risk is critical in counterparty risk management, especially in emerging markets with volatile currencies. Identifying and mitigating it is key to avoiding significant financial losses.